Matt
One of the poorest tile installation, longevity wise, is white bodied 4 1/4" set with a worn out V notch trowel and mastic on greenboard. In an installation such as this, often the grout is the only thing holding the tile on the wall. For each one of these I tear out, due to failure, I see several more in customers' houses that have no sign of damage at all. My mechanic lives in a house built in 1957 with the tile set this way. One bathroom is totally destroyed by water, the other looks just fine. I've rebuilt two bathrooms for his neighbors...again, total failure for the tile. Why has one bathroom lasted when three others are a total disaster? I have no idea.
Less dramatic are the results of tile over plywood and tile over vinyl installations....I see many that are done over these less than desirable substrates, holding up and giving no sign of failure. As Bri noted, we do see some numbers of these installs fail, simply because we see so many of them.
Results with cement board are even better, with old fashioned mud yielding the most durable installations. Do we see failures with CBU's and mud? Absolutely, but with such scarcity that it is worthy of note when we do see one.
I would go so far as to say that a poorly done mud job might last as long as, or longer, than a perfectly done plywood or drywall job.
You can tile over plywood, with SOME degree of confidence, but I would recommend using the best grade of plywood you can get, securely fasten it, and use the highest performance thinset that can be bought. Do all this and you MAY get 15 years with no problems. On the other hand, you may get problems in just a few months. One of my friends is an estimator for a multi-million dollar per year tile company in my area. They do a lot of tile over plywood for builders....1,000's of feet in a week. Some jobs come and go and there are no call backs. Other jobs come along where they end up tearing the entire installation out and starting over. It is almost never clear cut as to where the problem lies; but the one common denominator is tile being set over wood subfloors.
_________________________
Kitchen & Bath Renovations (VA USA)